Each week during the wildfire season, Dr. Mike Flannigan will share a five- to 10-day fire weather outlook for Canada. This is a first step in developing a national early warning system for wildfire in Canada. The fire weather outlook will be posted every Tuesday.
Mike Flannigan is the scientific director of the Institute for Wildfire Science, Adaptation, and Resiliency as well as the BC Innovation Research Chair in Predictive Services, Emergency Management and Fire Science at Thompson Rivers University.
View bioWeekly Outlook | June 27 - July 2, 2026 Issued June 23, 2026
All information provided below is reported at the time of publication and may not reflect more recent updates.
Current fire situationThe Weather Roller Coaster Continues
Over much of Canada this fire season, we have seen a parade of alternating upper-level troughs and ridges. This means that rain arrives every three to five days with each passing low or trough, and these conditions are not conducive to significant fire activity. Recently, there has been an exception to this pattern in northern Canada, primarily the NWT and Nunavut, but at times Alaska, the Yukon, and northern Quebec, where persistent ridging has been observed, a trend that should continue this week (Figure 1).
The fire season remains very quiet and will continue to do so if this pattern persists. To date, there have been nearly 2,000 fires and over 200,000 ha burned this season, both of which remain well below normal for area burned (CIFFC | Situation Report June 22, 2026). Despite the quiet season, impacts continue to be felt, with evacuations associated with the Kalamoir Park Fire (West Kelowna) and the Saw Creek Fire (Lytton) this past week.
The Canadian drought map was updated last week (Figure 2). Drought conditions have improved across many regions of Canada, though areas of abnormal dryness or drought persist, including parts of BC, the NWT, and the Quebec-Labrador border region. It is worth noting that a lack of drought does not necessarily translate into a lack of fire, as upland sites can experience intense fire activity even under non-drought conditions. However, drought can play a critical role in fire spread in wetlands, including peatlands, bogs, fens etc., as these areas can act as firebreaks under normal or wet conditions but will burn under drought conditions, allowing fire to spread across the landscape. Additionally, drought allows a greater proportion of fuels to dry sufficiently to burn, which can lead to a higher-intensity fire that is more challenging to suppress.
Figure 1. Seven-day mean anomalies of 500 mb geopotential height from the ECMWF sub-seasonal range ensemble for June 22nd-29th, 2026. This view is from the Arctic perspective, with North America on the left side of the chart.ECMWF | Charts
Fire weather outlook June 27- July 2, 2026
The upper ridge over northern Canada begins to shift during the forecast period as a broad upper ridge establishes itself over eastern North America, stretching from the southeastern US to Baffin Island and toward Great Bear Lake in the NWT (Figure 3). Precipitation during the forecast period is light across northern Quebec, northern Ontario, and parts of Nunavut and the NWT. Some lightning is expected early in the forecast period over the NWT, which will likely result in additional lightning-caused fire starts in that area. Fire activity is expected to continue in the NWT and to increase across northern Quebec, northern Ontario, and Nunavut.
Figure 3. ECMWF 500 mb heights and anomalies for July 1st, 2026.
Figure 4. ECMWF precipitation amounts forecast for June 28th- July 2nd, 2026. Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather
A Look Ahead
While this outlook typically focuses on Canada, it is worth noting that the United States has been experiencing an active fire season, currently at National Preparedness Level 3, with a very active period forecast for the western US over the coming weeks that may push the level to NPL4. For more information on the situation in the United States, see the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC).
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Questions, including media requests for Mike Flannigan, can be emailed to wildfire@tru.ca.
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